The headline and actual poll here are mismatched implying a causal relationship. The relative success of one company can't translate to the overall relative success of the market. In fact, this one company may be on the decline because of new entrants into the market. That is, it's possible both are true that fake meat is not a fad and Impossible will fail.
Scott, it's a really good point and I agree it's very possible for this particular company to be in trouble and for the industry to be in good shape. The challenge for me in writing Nonrival is to find a concrete, objective and score-able forecast question. In this case I was hoping to find some broader industry measure but couldn't. I'll include your comment in this week's follow up newsletter as it's an important caveat.
They've reported their Q1 financial data: https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-reports-first-quarter-2023-financial-results
The headline and actual poll here are mismatched implying a causal relationship. The relative success of one company can't translate to the overall relative success of the market. In fact, this one company may be on the decline because of new entrants into the market. That is, it's possible both are true that fake meat is not a fad and Impossible will fail.
Scott, it's a really good point and I agree it's very possible for this particular company to be in trouble and for the industry to be in good shape. The challenge for me in writing Nonrival is to find a concrete, objective and score-able forecast question. In this case I was hoping to find some broader industry measure but couldn't. I'll include your comment in this week's follow up newsletter as it's an important caveat.