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In this issue: Forecast
Will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) vote to end its strike before September 30?
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When will the writer’s strike end?
In July, the New York Times reported that “Labor Day looms as a crisis point” for the Hollywood strikes. Beyond that date, movie releases and TV schedules will be seriously impacted—which studios are keen to avoid. Labor Day is a week away and the writers strike is on week 17. Are they any closer to a deal?
For a second there it looked like the writers and the studios might be making progress. Then the studios went public with their proposal, earning the ire of the Writers Guild. That leaves things in a weird spot: A deal outline is out there but tensions are at new highs.
The writers' main demands are:
Better pay
The equivalent of residuals payments for streaming
Higher staffing requirements (ie, more writers per show)
Protections against AI
The studios’ proposal hits most of these, though not necessarily at a level the writers will accept. Pay is higher, there are residuals for streaming—plus a new commitment to sharing proprietary data on streaming viewership. There is a minimum of three writers per writers’ room—the Guild wants six—with a minimum of 10 weeks guaranteed employment. On AI, the gist is that if it’s used the writers who work alongside it still get paid as they otherwise would.
“[The proposal] broadly does address almost all of the issue points,” said Andy Greenwald, a writer and showrunner, on The Watch podcast. “That suggested to me a deal was possible.” But, he stressed, the publication of that deal in the press “was really received poorly” by writers.
So, what now? Here are four questions to think through what happens next.
What do shareholders think? In October, the studio CEOs have to go on earnings calls and explain themselves. Is that sufficient motivation to get a deal done in September?
What about the actors? The studios want to settle both strikes—and everyone in the industry eventually needs both writers and actors back at work. Will the studios settle with the writers to create momentum with the actors? Or, if a deal with the actors isn’t imminent, will they instead feel little pressure to settle with the writers?
Is money what matters? Money is the easy part. There’s a pot of cash, it was split one way in the cable era, now there needs to be a deal that does something similar for streaming. But if the strike is more about dignity and the existential question of what it means to be a writer in the age of AI, it might drag on longer.
How long from a draft deal to the end of a strike? In 2008, the answer was about 10 days. On Feb. 2, 2008 media reported that a contract proposal was imminent. On Feb. 12, the writers voted to end their strike.
Forecast
Will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) vote to end its strike before September 30?
Bonus trivia: During the last writers strike, in 2007, one Fox executive told analysts that it was “probably a positive” for the network because Fox aired which unscripted show that topped Nielsen’s TV ratings that year?
Resolution criteria: Nonrival will follow the criteria on Good Judgment Open: "The question would close upon the vote to end the strike irrespective of when the strike would actually end." The vote would have to be completed by, at latest, Friday Sept. 29 for this question to resolve "Yes." (I'm timing it this way so I can send scores out Sunday Oct. 1.)