Recap: The vibes will keep improving
Readers predict consumer sentiment will tick up again in April.
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In this issue
Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4?
Average reader forecast: 59%
The vibes will keep improving
Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As long as jobs are being created and markets are looking up, readers expect consumer sentiment to trend up with it.
Reader rationales
50%: The situation is not much better than it was before. But sentiment is influenced by media in preparation for 2024 election. And it can be more positive than it should be.
70%: This is a short term forecast. Like stated in the text: jobs are being created, interest rates will likely not go up and the stock market is going strong.
70%: I think Nate Silver is right: people’s personal circumstances are objectively better. It’s the contagious cultural malaise that drags down sentiment, but that will be slightly less as spring is blooming.
90%: It's spring, the trend line is already going up, and folks seem to feel great about their local economies. Unless something terrible happens, they'll continue to become more optimistic.
🐣 60% of readers answered correctly: Eggs have seen the largest price drop in percentage terms.