Prediction markets related to Silicon Valley Bank
A roundup.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about tech, business, and the economy.
Here’s a roundup of prediction markets and forecasting questions related to Silicon Valley Bank and its ramifications. For more on what happened at SVB and what might happen next, try this post.
Table of contents
Impact on tech
Impact on markets
Will uninsured depositors get their money back?
Three different thresholds below: Will they get 100% back, 80% back, 50% back…
Will this cause more tech layoffs?
Check this preexisting question on Good Judgment Open:
How many tech industry employees will be laid off in February 2023 and March 2023, according to Layoffs.fyi?
Watch for how the “Feb. and March” answer changes compared to the “Feb. only” one as a proxy for how much more forecaters expect tech layoffs.
Will another bank buy SVB?
Will other banks fail?
How many of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US will fail in 2023?
See the forecast on Good Judgment Open.
Or:
Or:
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