Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about tech, business, and the economy.
How it works
On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
Forecasts compared: What readers think about Disney and Hulu
Tech layoff forecasts, scored
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub .
Will Disney sell Hulu by the end of the year?
52% chance, according to the Nonrival reader average
30% chance, according to Good Judgment Open
22% chance, on Manifold Markets
How your forecast compares
The average reader forecast was 52%.
If you were receiving this by email you’d see your forecast here.
What other readers said
Readers’ rationales
25%: My main reasons are that Hulu is more profitable than Disney+ and it adds more diverse streaming entertainment options to the Disney brand.
25%: A deal makes sense: Disney gets cash to cover some losses and refocuses; NBC gets a real streaming platform to bail out Peacock. So there’s a real chance. But a lot can go wrong. Maybe Iger doesn’t see it that way, or top execs within Disney don’t. Or maybe the two sides just can’t agree on price. Maybe Disney buys out Comcast to buy time, and looks to sell it next year. So overall less likely
50%: It all seems very much up in the air. Iger could sell to reduce balance sheet burden, or acquire Comcast’s stake. 🤷🏼♂️
70%: Iger seems uninterested in owning distribution channels other than Disney+
Tech layoffs keep rolling
A month ago, Nonrival asked whether tech layoffs had peaked —specifically, Would there be 30,000 or more tech layoffs in either February or March? Readers were fairly divided, with the average forecast at 44% .
But February is over, and the layoff numbers cleared 30,000—for a monthly total of 36,493 as of this writing. So higher forecasts score better since the event did in fact occur.
Some of the biggest layoffs were at Ericsson, Twilio, Yahoo, Zoom, and Dell. And more layoffs are on the way: Meta, Airbnb, and Atlassian are all reportedly planning new cuts .
The average reader forecast said there was a 44% chance of 30,000 tech layoffs in Feb. or March.
It happened—Feb. exceeded 30K—so higher forecasts score better.
If you were receiving this by email you’d be seeing your personalized score here