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In this issue
Forecast: Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government in the first week of October?
Another government shutdown?
Members of Congress expected to be working this weekend. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had planned a Saturday vote on a proposal that he had hoped would be a step toward averting a government shutdown. Instead, several of his fellow Republicans torpedoed a related bill, and McCarthy opted to send members home for a long weekend.
Congress has until Oct. 1 to either pass a series of appropriations bills outlining levels of funding throughout the government, or to kick the can by passing a “continuing resolution” extending the current funding levels. If it can’t do one of those two in time, the government will shut down.
This was supposed to have been sorted out already. Back in June, Republicans and Democrats agreed on overall spending levels as part of a deal to avoid breaching the debt ceiling. “The expectations were that this settled the overall size of the appropriations bills, and Congress would pass 12 bills that added up to the agreed-upon levels,” writes David Wessel of Brookings.
But more extreme members of the Republican caucus don’t like the deal and don’t want to stick to it. To placate them, McCarthy proposed a 30-day continuing resolution that lowered spending levels slightly and added some right-wing priorities like border security. His most extreme caucus members rebelled, sinking a defense funding bill in a sign of their displeasure.
If Republicans could agree, any bill(s) they put forward would go to the Senate, where Democrats have a one-member majority. That would mean bipartisan negotiations of the sort that led to the June deal—which Republicans are now rejecting.
Another option is for moderate Republicans to join with Democrats to stick to the June agreement. McCarthy likely won’t go this route because it’d end his speakership. But less extreme Republicans have signaled some interest. Multiple Republican representatives from the state of New York have publicly floated the option of joining with Democrats to avoid a shutdown. Politico reported that there had been talks between Democrats and less extreme Republicans but noted that “it was entirely unclear whether or when those conversations might yield any result.”
Then there’s Trump, who has egged on the hardliners and called on Congress to “defund all aspects” of the government so as to stop the prosecutions against him.
With no imminent path to a deal, members of Congress are bracing for a shutdown and the White House has directed federal agencies to prepare for one. Republican officials reportedly expect that they’ll get blamed for a shutdown—as they have been in the past—but are “resigned” to pay that price.
“This is a whole new concept of individuals who just want to burn the whole place down,” McCarthy said this week of his own caucus. “It doesn’t work.” It certainly doesn’t.
Will majorities in the House and Senate coalesce around a deal in time to avoid a shutdown—even just by passing a short-term bill to buy some time? Or are federal workers headed for furlough as America's government once again ceases to function?
Forecast
Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government in the first week of October?
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Deadline: Make a forecast by 9am ET Tuesday Sept. 26.
Resolution criteria: First week of October means by Oct. 7. Per Good Judgment Open's criteria: a "shutdown of the US federal government" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation. A partial shutdown would count.