📺 Don't bet against Disney
Readers predict it'll maintain its lead over Netflix through Q2 2023.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
How it works
On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
On Wednesdays see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
Disney vs. Netflix forecasts compared
More debt ceiling forecasts
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Disney expected to maintain its lead in streaming
How your forecast compares
The average reader forecast was 61%.
If you were reading this in email, you’d see your personalized forecast here.
What other readers said
Nonrival readers largely expect Disney to keep its lead in streaming through the first half of 2023. The average reader forecast gives a 61% chance that Disney has more streaming subscribers than Netflix at the end of Q2, with most readers leaving Netflix about a one-in-three shot of pulling ahead:
Reader rationales
The case against Disney:
10%: The bigger and older an organization, the slower they are to change and adapt to rapidly shifting market adjustments. The younger, more focused will prevail.
30%: Disney's IP seems to have the strongest pull with kids. The families that were going to get their service mostly have it already, at least in the US.
The case for Disney:
93%: Without a strong creative-first brand, Netflix can’t recruit new subscriber interest at the same rate—nor will they retain the best storytelling talent
The content that could make the difference:
55%: The numbers are so close it will come down to particular content events to decide. The Harry and Meghan doc on Netflix may have kicked enough to Netflix, for example, and Disney is waiting on its next big kick which will be Mandalorian season 3.
Or, maybe both companies are in trouble…
30%: The “golden age of television “ is going to be over. In person socializing will become the preferred leisure activity as the pandemic ebbs. It will become mildly embarrassing to admit that one watches a lot of television.
More on the debt ceiling
Over at  Good Judgment Open , forecasters are tackling two debt ceiling questions:
Will the US breach the debt ceiling in 2023? Right now they give an  8% chance that the debt ceiling is not raised in 2023, which would likely trigger a default.
Will a credit agency downgrade its US outlook or credit rating? Right now Good Judgment Open forecasters give it a  47% chance , even higher than the  34% average of Nonrival readers .
While an outright default remains unlikely, there's a very real chance of self-inflicted economic chaos in the US later this year.
Extras...
 FT quiz lets you compare your predictions to those of superforecastersÂ
 Maybe there won't be a recession after all? Even in Europe? (FT)Â
 Avatar 2 has now made $2 billion. Only six movies have ever done that, and James Cameron has made three of them (Morning Brew)Â
 How chatGPT will destabilize white-collar work (The Atlantic)Â