This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question.

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In this issue

Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4?

• ​Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7.​

• Outcome: No (so lower forecasts score better)

• Average forecast: ​59%​

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Of readers who have made at least one forecast in Season 3...

• The current high score is 100.

The mood darkens

Consumer sentiment fell in April, ​according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading​. The index fell from ​79.4 to 77.9​. Consumers' inflation expectations ticked up, too.

That means most readers were on the wrong side of this one, since most of us thought an increase was ​more likely than not​.

What did we miss? Three possible explanations:

1. It's the gas prices, stupid. As discussed last week, ​gas prices are rising​ and they're one of the most obvious and salient measures of inflation and consumer confidence.

2. The wider fight against inflation ​has stalled​. The CPI has come in higher than expected a couple of months in a row, and core inflation has stopped falling as well.

3. My biggest takeaway though, is to remember that metrics like this are noisy and there's often reversion to the mean. Consumer sentiment may well keep improving throughout 2024, but for any given month it's harder to predict with any certainty.

Nonrival will be back with a new question next month, likely the first week of May.

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to ​newsletter@nonrival.pub​.

In this issue

Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4?

• Average reader forecast: 59%

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The vibes will keep improving

Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As long as jobs are being created and markets are looking up, readers expect consumer sentiment to trend up with it.

Reader rationales

50%: The situation is not much better than it was before. But sentiment is influenced by media in preparation for 2024 election. And it can be more positive than it should be.

70%: This is a short term forecast. Like stated in the text: jobs are being created, interest rates will likely not go up and the stock market is going strong.

70%: I think Nate Silver is right: people’s personal circumstances are objectively better. It’s the contagious cultural malaise that drags down sentiment, but that will be slightly less as spring is blooming.

90%: It's spring, the trend line is already going up, and folks seem to feel great about their local economies. Unless something terrible happens, they'll continue to become more optimistic.

🐣 60% of readers answered correctly: ​Eggs​ have seen the largest price drop in percentage terms.

How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction! ​You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is​, compared to what actually happens.

New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday.

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to ​newsletter@nonrival.pub​.

In this issue

• Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment keep improving?

• (Make a forecast with one click at the bottom of this email.)

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Are the bad economic vibes over?

Americans felt better about the US economy in March than at any point in the last three years, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. Will that trend continue?

If you’ve argued about ​economic “vibes” and “vibecessions”​ in the last year, it’s time to put your theorizing to the test and make a prediction: Will US consumer sentiment rise further in April, from its 3-year March high?

Here’s the case for continued consumer optimism, in a nutshell: The US added more than 300,000 jobs in March—​far exceeding expectations​. While that might temper the Fed’s eagerness to cut interest rates, it indicates that the job market remains strong. ​Wages are growing​, ​unemployment is low​, and ​inflation has fallen precipitously​.

On the other hand, prices remain high: the rate of inflation may be falling but prices overall are still much higher than they were a few years ago. ​Groceries cost 25%​ more than they did before the pandemic. Rental prices are no longer exploding, but in most places ​they aren’t falling either​. And gas prices—while down from their mid-2022 highs—have ticked up since the start of the year:

The Michigan consumer sentiment survey ​asks five questions​, some about current conditions—Are you better or worse off financially than a year ago?—and some about the future. One of those future questions looks as far out as five years:

“Which would you say is more likely—that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression?”

Nate Silver pointed out in February that ​US consumers are less optimistic about the future​, even as they’re growing more optimistic about their finances and the current state of the economy.

That does open the door to a vibes-based aspect to this consumer sentiment measure: Even if the economy improves, sentiment can be dragged down if Americans are worried that things will get worse soon.

Forecast

Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4?

​​Very likely (~90% chance)​

​Likely (~70%)​

​Uncertain (~50%)​

​Unlikely (~30%)​

​Very unlikely (~10%)​

Bonus trivia: Which of these foods saw the biggest percentage DECREASE in price in 2023? Bacon, coffee, or eggs?

(Make a forecast by clicking a link above and you'll get to answer this trivia question.)

Just want to make a quick forecast? Click a link above and you're done! Your forecast will be recorded.

Or, click a link and then complete the survey. You can provide your reasoning.

Deadline: Make a forecast by 9am ET Tues. April 9.

Resolution criteria: This question will resolve based on the April preliminary sentiment data, published April 12, not the final data published later in the month. And it will be compared to the final value for March, which is 79.4. Data is ​here​; an explanation of the metric is ​here​.